Orion, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

558
FXUS63 KDTX 072243
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
643 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with warmer temperatures Monday.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms starting Monday night. Greater
potential exists Tuesday, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Hot and humid Wednesday and Thursday along with additional
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...

Strong high pressure will remain dominate across the eastern Great
Lakes tonight and Monday. Dry air circulating around this system
will maintain clear skies tonight. The position of the surface high
will result in light easterly winds tonight, transitioning to
southeast on Monday.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms expected through the TAF
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs aob 5000 feet Monday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Dry and stable conditions exist to finish the weekend period, as
high magnitude upper level ridging maintains control atop surface
high pressure anchored over Ontario. Little variation in the
resident profile expected over the next 24 hours. Deep column
subsidence held within this environment affords limited cloud
production, while a resident dewpoint of mid 50s to lower 60s
represents the lowest expected humidity over the upcoming week. Lows
tonight in the 50s, with highs pushing well into 80s Monday as mean
thickness readings peak as the upper ridge apex slips eastward.

Higher amplitude upper level trough digging into the upper midwest
will effectively shunt a lower amplitude positively tilted
disturbance currently drifting across the plains northeast toward
the great lakes by early Tuesday. Strengthening low level jet Monday
night along the lead edge of the height falls will initiate a
pronounced period of moisture transport during this time. Surface
dewpoint projected to surge sharply into the mid 60s to lower 70s,
with model PWAT values approaching 2 inches by Tue evening.
Supportive large scale ascent tied to the passing wave timed
coincident with daytime heating will yield a high probability for
some clusters of showers and thunderstorms to develop. Profile
characterized by high quality moisture at the deep level and
associated weak instability, but lacking in meaningful low level or
deep layer shear. This suggests limited potential for greater
convective organization, although isolated stronger downbursts could
materialize driven by localized precipitation loading. Heightened
risk for heavy rainfall exists given expected slow storm motion and
prospective efficient rainfall rate. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall across lower Michigan.

In the wake of Tuesday`s system, southwest flow strengthens across a
deep layer within the backdrop of building upper heights. Strong low
level warm air advection takes hold on Wednesday as 850mb
temperatures climb to near 20C. This sets the stage for an extended
stretch of high magnitude warmth and humidity for the late week
period, as surface temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower
90s both Wednesday and Thursday. This occurs while dewpoints remain
locked in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This translates into peak heat
index values solidly in the 90s both days. While larger scale
capping concerns will exist, some convective potential will exist
with reliance on upstream convective behavior. This convective
potential does introduce minor predictability barriers regarding
exactly how high max temperatures will peak each day.

MARINE...

Western periphery of a high pressure system will hold across the
Great Lakes today through tomorrow afternoon. This will maintain dry
conditions along with light winds. Winds from the north to northeast
will back to the east-southeast through tomorrow in response to the
departure of high pressure. Weak low pressure will then bring some
unsettled weather through the midweek period. Some periodic rain
showers with embedded rain showers will be likely on Tuesday, with
lower end potential Wednesday onwards. The weaker pressure gradient
keeps wind gust potential aob 20 knots outside of any thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......AM


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.