Orion, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

677
FXUS63 KDTX 131743
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1243 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and mild today with a slight chance of wintry mix in the
morning followed by scattered light rain showers.

- Snow showers Wednesday and Wednesday night as arctic air moves
into the region. Accumulations between a dusting and 1 inch for most
locations, with 3 to 4 inches possible along the Lake Huron
shoreline of Huron county.

- Much colder late this week and into next weekend. Thursday and
Friday morning wind chill around zero degrees.

- Periodic chances for snow will exist Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

An upper-level disturbance will bring the chance for scattered rain
showers through the remainder of the afternoon hours, with vfr
conditions expected to prevail. Some brief scouring out of cloud
cover will be possible after showers have ended as flow subtly backs
to the southwest. Clearing trends will open the door for some
stronger gust potential, with peak gusts ranging between 25 to 30
knots during the remaining daylight hours. Overnight, a cold front
will begin to work in across SE MI which will draw in lake moisture,
quickly bringing in mvfr cigs and snow showers. Some brief localized
stronger snow showers will be possible immediately along the cold
front, represented by a tempo group in the outgoing TAFs. Sustained
winds and gust potential increases in the wake of the front.

For DTW... a strong cold front reaches DTW between 9z-13z Wednesday
morning, marked by snow shower activity and an abrupt shift to
northwest flow. Snow will be greatest in intensity and coverage along
the front, although light snow showers may continue through the
morning. Breezy northwest winds develop behind the front, with gusts
generally holding below 30 knots to limit crosswind concerns at this
time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs aob 5000 feet today, high overnight.

* High for precipitation type of rain this afternoon. High for snow
  after 09Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

Firm southwest low level gradient evident immediately downstream of
an inbound clipper system will remain the catalyst for ongoing warm
air advection this morning. The inbound thermal ridge /+4C 850 mb
temps/ will mark the warmest conditions noted this entire forecast
period, effectively leading to a daylight peak in temperatures of
around 40 degrees many locations. Narrow wing of heightened moist
isentropic ascent flanking an initial weak period of height falls
will maintain a chance of light precipitation production today.
Marginal wet bulb temps may initially afford a few melting
snowflakes with any activity across the north this morning, but
otherwise ptype remains rain with a higher probability existing with
northward extent. Shallow mixed layer within this environment, but
sufficient to engage the elevated wind field just off the surface
and support some gustiness into the 30 to 35 mph range. Some spotty
shower activity plausible early tonight, as moisture depth improves
within an initial period of weak cold air advection tied the
eastward ejecting clipper.

Focus shifts to the inbound arctic front set to track across the
area between 09z and 15z Wednesday morning. Increasing snow shower
potential from north to south during this time, with a peak in
forcing along the advancing convergence axis drawing upon steepening
lapse rates and supportive moisture depth. Secondary window for snow
shower development Wednesday afternoon tied to the southward
ejecting mid level circulation. Moisture quality lacks overall given
the arctic origin, but favorable microphysics will exist for a time
as the moist layer takes residence at a deeper layer within the dgz
and the magnitude of the advective process removes stability
concerns. Forecast maintains general accumulation potential from a
dusting to around an inch most locations through the afternoon.
Steady column drying as the arctic plume takes greater influence
will favor drier conditions by evening. Eastern thumb the exception,
as cold north-northwest flow over the long lake Huron fetch elicits
a lake response with a concerted focus along the lake aggregate
trough. The overall scale, vigor and longevity of activity carries
greater uncertainty owing to sensitivity to proper projection of
wind trajectory and influence of the drying arctic profile with
time. Eastern Huron county most susceptible to persistent,
potentially higher intensity lake bands, yielding a smaller
footprint of variable accumulation amounts perhaps in excess of 3
inches near the shoreline by early Thursday morning. The downward
spiral in temperatures means sub-zero wind chill most locations by
Thursday morning.

Arctic cold with dry conditions in deep northwest flow Thursday.
Temperatures briefly moderate Friday as the first in series of
clipper systems lifts through the region. Combination of warm air
advection and dcva with the passing wave brings a high likelihood of
snow with some accumulation throughout the Friday period. Trailing
shortwave energy will work to carve out a broader mid level trough
for the upcoming weekend. This pattern will remain conducive to
periodic snowfall chances. Another intrusion of arctic air fortifies
a longer stretch of well below average temperatures lasting into
early next week.

MARINE...

South-southwesterly gradient winds increase again today with the
approach of the next low pressure system into Ontario. A new set of
Small Craft Advisories were issued though the evening hours. 35-50
knot flow moves into the lowest 3 kft, but gusts should be held in-
check by marginally sufficient lower column stability. Still, cannot
rule out a few isolated gale-force gusts this afternoon, mainly over
the southern half of Lake Huron. The low ejects into Quebec by
Wednesday morning which forces a rather potent cold front across the
central Great Lakes. Potential exists for brief marginal post-
frontal gales on Wednesday with the ensuing cold advection, but
since the low-level wind field should be weakened and displaced
further south, no Gale Watch was issued. Extensions and/or
additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be required Wednesday.
Winds speeds steadily decrease Thursday with a passing surface ridge
axis, then flip southerly by Friday ahead of the next clipper
system.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for LHZ361-362.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AM
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......KGK


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